In the wake of the referendum results, the factors influencing the votes and predictions for the implications of the votes is being considered across the board.
Everything from too many “remain” voters stuck in the mud at Glastonbury or on holiday after university exams to rain in the South East of England keeping young voters indoors. Even the potential of voter fatigue in Scotland.
Regardless, what we do know, is that it was probably a combination of factors and quite possibly we now have a more representative sample of the UK population and a relatively strong majority voting to leave the EU – 52% vs 48%.
As you are well aware, the UK has voted to leave the European Union and the British Prime Minister, David Cameron has resigned; up until the evening of the 23rd June bookmakers odds suggested there was only a 16% chance of this happening.
However, despite the financial markets and global institutions having to make revisions to their predictions, the majority will still try to position themselves to continue to profit from this outcome as in many market conditions.
That being said, a number of funds will face uncertainty as volatility spikes. Although this will even out and come to pass in time, this is by no means of short-term impact.
The next step involves the invocation of article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which opens up a two-year negotiation, after which the treaties which govern the UK’s membership of the EU no longer exist. Interestingly, and adding further uncertainty, the terms of any negotiated exit agreement are subject to ratification by each member country’s parliament.